Thursday, December 3, 2020

Kansas State vs. Iowa State line, prediction: Wildcats will cover

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Kansas State (4-3 straight up, 5-2 against the spread) is 11-1 in its last 12 head-to-head meetings against Iowa State heading into Saturday afternoon’s clash in Ames, Iowa. The Cyclones are favored by 11 points, but haven’t beaten the Wildcats by more than that since 2005. Only one of the last six games in this rivalry has been decided by more than five points, and that was Kansas State’s 27-17 home win over Matt Campbell’s club last season.

Kansas State saw its 10-game winning streak over the Cyclones snapped in its last visit to Ames, where the Wildcats allowed a 17-point, fourth-quarter lead to get away in a 42-38 loss. Nevertheless, Kansas State easily covered the number as a 13-point underdog.

Chris Klieman’s team has been a double-digit underdog three times this year already. Kansas State won 38-35 at Oklahoma as a 27.5-point underdog before beating TCU, 21-14, in Fort Worth as an 11.5-point underdog.

Two weeks ago at home, Kansas State led Oklahoma State 12-0 at halftime as a 14-point puppy. The Cowboys rallied to take a 13-12 lead, but the Wildcats were in the red zone with 6:32 remaining. However, Kansas State coughed up a fumble that Oklahoma State turned into an 85-yard scoop and score for a 20-12 advantage.

Kleiman’s team answered with a touchdown drive to make it 20-18, but its tying two-point conversion attempt failed. Nevertheless, the Wildcats improved to 3-0 ATS with a pair of outright wins in three games as double-digit underdogs. They’ve beaten the closing lines in those three games by 61 combined points.

In fact, Kansas State is 17-6 ATS with seven outright wins in its past 23 games as a double-digit underdog since late in the 2009 campaign. Furthermore, the Wildcats are 35-13 ATS as road underdogs since 2007. Finally, regardless of whether they are at home, on the road or at a neutral venue, they have compiled a 51-22 spread record in their last 73 games as underdogs.

Kansas State has had two weeks to prepare for the Cyclones, who had a 60-minute battle with Baylor last week before prevailing, 38-31.

The play: Kansas State, +11.

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